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　    阿里云优惠券 先领券再下单        618购物节已成为中国电商年度盛事之一，与双11齐名。对于精明的消费者来说，了解活动节奏、掌握最佳购买时机至关重要。    

    Tian Xuan Photo: Courtesy of Tian
In economic theory, "overcapacity" - for which no universally accepted definition exists - is inherently a recurring feature of the market economy's dynamic "balance - imbalance - rebalance" cycle. The Western narrative that equates China's sizable production capacity directly with "overcapacity" defies economic logic and rigor; in reality, it represents a politicization of trade and economic issues.
First, it confuses the concepts of "capacity scale" and "overcapacity." China's overall industrial capacity utilization remains within a reasonable range. Periodically lower utilization in traditional sectors reflects a normal adjustment as these industries advance toward high-end, intelligent, and green production. Ample capacity in certain emerging industries is precisely what meets surging global demand for high-end, smart, and green solutions. Therefore, equating scale with excess is typical equivocation.
Second, "overcapacity" itself is a dynamic feature of market economies, where no fixed balance persists indefinitely. Judging capacity based solely on static snapshots violates basic economic principles.
Third, it is erroneous to simplistically link trade surpluses or industrial subsidies to overcapacity, while ignoring the macro context of global specialization and cross-border savings-investment structures. It also disregards the reality that reasonable capacity utilization ranges differ across economies at varying stages of development. Imposing a single standard on China is neither scientific nor rigorous.
China's global competitiveness in green technology stems from sustained, large-scale investment in innovation, a comprehensive industrial and supply chain system, massive application scenarios, and intense market competition - not from alleged government subsidies. After decades of long-cycle R&D, Chinese industries have achieved breakthroughs in core technologies such as power batteries and photovoltaic modules.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), China's nationwide R&D spending grew at an average annual rate of 10 percent. Economies of scale have continuously diluted production costs. China's ultra-large domestic market and full-chain supporting ecosystem provide an optimal testing ground for new technologies - from pilot verification to mass deployment. With more than 200 million market entities driving fierce competition, enterprises are constantly compelled to cut costs, raise efficiency, and upgrade products, thereby forging dual advantages in price and performance that we see today.
There is no direct causation between subsidies and overcapacity. Industrial subsidies are a globally recognized practice, typically aimed at correcting market failures and advancing critical technologies. China's subsidies are granted on an impartial basis to all types of market entities, in full compliance with WTO rules, and have not triggered disorderly capacity expansion.
Currently, capacity utilization in China's green industries remains within a reasonable range. Support is primarily directed toward R&D, technological breakthroughs, and consumer-side incentives through market-based mechanisms - not toward fueling overcapacity. Crucially, China's high-quality capacity has reduced the global cost of green transition, representing an opportunity rather than a shock to world development.
Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality goals, labeling China's new energy capacity as "overcapacity" is entirely untenable. According to the International Energy Agency, global data center electricity consumption will approach 1 trillion kWh by 2030, with 40 percent of incremental power needing to come from renewables. Demand for wind power, photovoltaics, power batteries, and related green energy solutions remains far from saturated - so claims of "overcapacity" are groundless.
China's capacity plays a central role in advancing the global energy transition. Over the past decade, the levelized cost of electricity from wind and solar globally has fallen by more than 60 percent and 80 percent respectively - improvements largely attributable to Chinese innovation and manufacturing, which have directly lowered the cost threshold for worldwide green transformation.
The US journal Science crowned the global renewable energy surge led by China among its Top 10 Breakthroughs of 2025. Leveraging its technological and scale advantages, China is well positioned to supply abundant, high-quality green energy equipment and solutions, meet fast-growing renewable demand from data centers, industrial production, and other sectors, and tangibly support countries in implementing the Paris Agreement. In short, China is a pivotal force driving the global low-carbon transition.
The so-called "China Shock 2.0" is fundamentally a protectionist narrative rooted in Cold War thinking - a politically motivated claim inconsistent with facts. The rapid development of China's modern industries is driven by innovation and sustained institutional reform, not by dumping allegedly excess capacity abroad. Rather than posing a shock, China's industrial progress offers a "China Opportunity 2.0." It delivers multiple dividends to global development - innovation dividends, market dividends, and growth dividends - while injecting stability and vitality into global industrial chains through an open and win-win approach.
China's high-quality green and high-tech exports have tangibly accelerated the global green transition and reduced production costs worldwide. Meanwhile, as the world's largest goods consumption market and the second-largest importer for 17 consecutive years, China provides enormous market opportunities for economies around the globe. Moreover, China's open-source collaboration and technology sharing in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence and the digital economy enable developing countries to bridge the digital divide at lower cost and share in the benefits of the technological revolution.
The facts demonstrate that China's emerging technologies and products represent a "China Opportunity 2.0" - driving global technological progress, accelerating the green transition, improving livelihoods across nations, and bolstering the industrialization of developing economies. This open and mutually beneficial cooperation stands as the true engine of global economic recovery and sustainable development. 
This article is compiled based on an interview with Tian Xuan, dean at the Guanghua School of Management and Boya Distinguished Professor of Finance of Peking University. [email protected]

。本文将为您详细解析2025年京东、淘宝618活动的时间安排，并提供最优惠的选购策略。        首先 划重点！今年京东的618红包口令是「红包到手995」,淘宝618红包口令是「红包到手33777」要记住!    京东APP搜：红包到手995    淘宝APP搜：红包到手33777    每晚8点还能有机会额外领取一次记的查看!        2025年618活动整体时间表 京东618活动时间表（预计）    预售期：5月13日20:00-5月31日23:59    开门红：6月1日00:00-6月3日23:59    品类日：6月4日-6月15日（每日不同品类专场）    狂欢日：6月16日00:00-6月18日23:59    返场期：6月19日-6月20日    淘宝/天猫618活动时间表（预计）    预售期：5月24日20:00-5月31日23:59    第一波售卖：6月1日00:30-6月3日23:59    品类日：6月4日-6月15日    第二波售卖（狂欢日）：6月16日00:00-6月18日23:59    返场期：6月19日-6月20日        什么时候买最便宜？优惠力度最大的时间点分析 1. 预售期（最推荐）    时间：京东5月20日-5月31日；淘宝5月24日-5月31日    优势：    通常提供最大力度的优惠，尤其是前几个小时    预售商品往往有额外赠品或更低价格    可锁定库存，避免后期缺货    策略：    重点关注5月20日/24日前2小时的"超级预售"活动    支付定金可享受膨胀优惠（如100抵150）    大件商品（家电、数码等）此时购买最划算    2. 开门红/第一波售卖（次推荐）    时间：6月1日-6月3日    优势：    全品类参与，优惠覆盖面广    部分商品价格与预售期持平    现货发售，无需等待    策略：    适合错过预售或需要现货的消费者    关注6月1日前2小时的限时折扣    可与预售价格对比后再决定    3. 品类日（选择性购买）    时间：6月4日-6月15日    优势：    每日不同品类专场优惠    部分小众品类折扣力度大    策略：    提前查看品类日排期表    针对特定需求商品等待对应品类日    非急需商品可等到狂欢日再比价    4. 狂欢日（618当天）    时间：6月16日-6月18日    优势：    氛围最热烈，活动最丰富    部分商品会有"最后冲刺"折扣    注意事项：    价格未必是最低的（很多商品预售期更便宜）    热门商品可能缺货    适合查漏补缺或抢购限量特价商品    5. 返场期（捡漏机会）    时间：6月19日-6月20日    优势：    部分商家会清库存，可能有意外惊喜    退换货商品可能重新上架        2025年618最优惠购买攻略 一、提前准备阶段（5月初）    制定购物清单：明确需求，避免冲动消费    比价工具准备：安装比价插件，查看历史价格    优惠券收集：提前领取店铺券、品类券、平台券    支付方式准备：绑定优惠支付方式（如京东白条、花呗等）    会员权益检查：续费PLUS会员、88VIP等享受额外折扣    二、价格监控策略    历史价格查询：使用比价工具确认是否真优惠    预售价与现货价对比：有些商品现货可能更便宜    跨平台比价：京东、淘宝、拼多多多方对比    保价政策利用：了解平台保价规则，降价可申请补差    三、优惠叠加技巧    平台券+店铺券+品类券：多重优惠叠加使用    满减活动+优惠券：计算最优组合    支付方式优惠：如银行卡支付立减    会员专属折扣：PLUS会员、88VIP等额外95折    以旧换新补贴：家电数码可叠加以旧换新优惠    四、不同品类最佳购买时机    家电数码：预售期最优惠，尤其前2小时    美妆个护：品类日（美妆专场）或预售期    服饰鞋包：狂欢日或返场期折扣力度大    生鲜食品：618当天或返场期（避免过早购买）    家居用品：品类日或开门红阶段    五、避坑指南    警惕先涨后降：对比3个月内的历史价格    理性看待赠品：计算主商品实际折扣力度    注意保价条款：部分商品不参与保价    物流时效考虑：预售商品发货较晚，急需慎拍    退货政策了解：特殊商品可能不支持7天无理由    2025年618新趋势预测    直播带货力度加大：头部主播直播间或有专属优惠    绿色消费补贴：环保节能产品可能有额外补贴    AR/VR购物体验：平台可能推出虚拟试穿等新功能    即时零售参与：京东到家、天猫超市小时达或加入促销    跨境商品优惠：进口商品可能有专属折扣区    总结：2025年618最佳购买时间    最优惠时间排名：    预售期前2小时（5月20日/24日）    整个预售期（5月20/24-31日）    开门红前2小时（6月1日）    对应品类专场日    618狂欢日前2小时（6月16日）    黄金法则：    大件、高价商品→预售期购买    常规商品→比价后选择预售或开门红    非急需商品→可等待狂欢日或返场捡漏    记住，最便宜的时候不一定是6月18日当天！提前规划、理性消费，才能在618真正享受到实惠。建议提前收藏心仪商品，关注价格变动，祝您2025年618购物愉快！             

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